#SudanRevolts Brief Analysis

By: Concerned Citizen

In case it may be useful, below is my take on the latest events on development in Sudan. I concur with contacts on the ground inside Sudan who are of the view that if the present protests continue for the next 7-10 days, then NCP will not be able to contain the situation.

What makes the present riots different (in brief) is that demonstrations are characterized by:-

Continuity

Intensity. Demonstrations were sparked by university students but in subsequent days were joined by others from high schools, unemployed youth (according to GOS figures over 65% of graduates) women (en masse), professionals, farmers, etc…

Spread outside Khartoum, its suburbs and shanty towns, to rural communities that are normally docile and consider economic/political crisis to be willed by Allah (testing the believers). Farmers from agricultural communities blocked the Khartoum to WadMedani highway and fought against police and security forces. Riots took place in Sennar and Medani in the Centre, El-Obied in the West and Shendi in the North Port Sudan & Gedarif in the East (see burning of NCP headquarters, here)

Unified strong opposition to the corrupt Bashir and his Islamists mafia as expressed by popular slogans.

However, there remain serious concerns about:-

Economic / political opportunists from various sectarian, financial and Islamists groups searching for a soft landing for Bashir (probably with support from Qatari Islamists).

Attempts to impose a Khartoum centred compromise at the expense of the marginalized majority in the peripheries

“Politically” weak and dysfunctional armed opposition in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, Darfur, Eastern Sudan and trade union as well as other civil society groups of urban communities.

Failure of these actors to undertake their historical role of forcing a restructuring
of the state can lead to chaos and reproduction of the political crises.

NCP use of brute force and deployment of tribal and mercenary militias. Such development gives rise to fears of multiple mini genocidal conflicts (akin to Rwanda but on a minor scale).

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